AN ANALYSIS OF THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN BRUNEI: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
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Abstract
The Phillips curve is still a valued and fundamental macroeconomic theory, although
groups of economists called “monetarists” and “new classical economists” criticized
harshly basic tenets of the tradeoff between inflation rates and output gap. This paper chose
Brunei as the case study to examine empirically the validity of the Phillips curve by
employing the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter methods. In other words, this paper used as the
HP filter method to estimate the output gap by decomposing the actual output into the
“trend” output and “cycle” output. The former can be used as the potential output while
the latter can be used the output gap. In a nutshell, empirical findings of the present study
show that there is a long-run relationship – and also long-run causality -- between Brunei’s
output gap and inflation rate. These findings provide an additional empirical support to the
validity of the Phillips curve in the context of an Asian country, which is the main finding
of the empirical analysis done in this study.
Keywords: Phillips curve, Brunei
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